There’s really only one poll that accurately gauges voter intentions, and it’s the one that everyone relies on when they want to see what an upcoming election is looking like for both major parties: The Reuters-Ipsos Poll, which began just over 6 years ago in January 2012, and has queried an average of 2,500 people every week since then.
I like to call it the R.I.P.
That’s more than a little fitting right now, especially for Republicans who think they may stand a chance of retaining their seats in the House and Senate this November — that likelihood decreases with every passing day, and the new R.I.P. gives maybe the worst indicator the GOP has seen yet.
They’re losing the white vote. You know, the people who elected Donald Trump. The vast majority of their base.
In fact, I could probably count the number of people of color I know who vote Republican on one hand. That could spell disaster for the Greedy Old Pigs (we have fun with acronyms around here) in the midterms.
According to the poll, white college graduates over the age of 60 now favor Democrats by two points over Republicans for Congress. If you think that number sounds small, you have to factor in how wide the gap was just two years ago: Those same voters favored Republicans by ten points, so in reality, it’s a twelve-point swing from Red to Blue.
It’s great to see the left doing better across any demographic, of course, but it is especially satisfying to see that Trump’s constant pandering and supplication to the absolute worst of the worst among Americans is doing nothing but keeping those voters loyal — and there are simply nowhere near enough of them to keep Republicans in power.
From the polling page:
“The real core for the Republicans is white, older white, and if they’re losing ground there, they’re going to have a tsunami,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist who closely tracks political races. “If that continues to November, they’re toast.”
Thanks for the insight Larry — we’re looking forward to it!
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